Market Fundamentals Suggest Downside Pressure on Natural Gas Pricing: What to Know This Week

What You Need to Know About Energy Prices This Week

The May natural gas contract concluded the week’s opening session at $3.066/MMBtu, down another 3.5 cents from Friday. The contract then extended losses to their fifth consecutive day following last week’s high of $3.185/MMBtu, settling Tuesday at $3.043/MMBtu. The 12-month strip, beginning May 2017, is seeing a retreat as well, dropping ~8 cents over the past 5 trading sessions. However, at $3.305/MMBtu, it is still trading above the 12-month rolling average of $3.19/MMBtu.

Market fundamentals continue to favor the downside. The number of gas rigs has been on the rise as of late, and at last report, the rig count rose by 5 to 167. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration’s recent storage report revealed a 54 Bcf net injection, besting last year’s mark by 48 Bcf for the same week. Gas stocks currently sit at 2,115 Bcf, or 282 Bcf above the five-year rolling average.

Although current weather forecasts show deviations from average temperatures across the continental US, there is little to suggest major changes in cooling or heating demand, which should allow for greater builds in storage.

A Brief Primer on Energy Markets

Every week, EnerNOC’s energy intelligence team analyzes the market developments driving energy prices. In this weekly article, you’ll see a lot of discussion about energy generation sources, such as natural gas, coal, nuclear, and some renewable and distributed energy resources. You’ll also see a lot of talk about the factors affecting generation: weather, production, storage levels, natural disasters, geopolitical events, and so on.

The connections between the drivers and the energy markets are complex, but here’s what you should know in a nutshell. Weather is a key driver because it has a direct impact on demand for electricity and natural gas. Temperature extremes cause spikes in demand for natural gas, either directly for home heat or indirectly as a fuel source to generate electricity for air conditioning. Similarly, unexpected natural disasters or geopolitical events could suddenly affect supply, which has a similar downstream effect on pricing. And, of course, any change in pricing is going to affect your organization’s energy costs. Keeping up with new developments in the market is important to ensuring you don’t miss opportunities that could save significant money for your business over the long term.

If this is all still a little confusing, talk to an energy procurement expert to learn why the factors affecting energy markets actually matter to your business. Or check out our other content to learn more about what drives energy prices and how you can turn temporary low-price opportunities into long-term savings.

Want tailored advice on how to buy energy more strategically? Speak with a procurement expert now.
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What's Driving the Market Up?

In the short term:

  • Weather forecasts for early May show some promise for lingering heating demand

  • Four vessels exporting liquefied natural gas departed carrying a total capacity of 14.3 Bcf

  • Production of dry natural gas dropped 1% week over week

In the long term:

  • US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects 4% year-over-year growth in gas used to generate power

  • EIA projects that 2017 natural gas prices could average $4/MMBtu

  • Cheniere Energy, the operator of the Sabine Pass terminal, received authorization from FERC to commence liquefaction and export activities from Train 3

  • According to the EIA, US is on its way to being net energy exporter

  • Liquefied natural gas exports have begun and are expected to average 1.8 Bcf/d, up from about 0.6 Bcf/d in 2016

  • PJM’s board of directors has approved higher tariff rates through 2024 to help cover operating and administrative costs

  • 21 GW of generating capacity expected to retire by 2020

What's Driving the Market Down?

In the short term:

  • The EIA’s latest storage report revealed a faster pace to the start of the storage injection season

  • US consumption of natural gas was down 6% week over week, driven by a 28% decrease from the residential and commercial sector

  • US total rig count climbs for the third week to 847

In the long term:

  • Rover Pipeline & Atlantic Sunrise Project win FERC approval

  • Nuclear industry targets 30% cost reduction by 2018 in order to increase competitiveness in the market

  • FERC has approved the construction of capacity enhancement for the Rockies Express Pipeline

  • Pipeline flows from the Algonquin Gas Transmission’s Incremental Market project started on November 1

  • The US electric grid is expected to add almost 55 GW of generating capacity, most of which will be wind, solar, and natural gas

  • 28,607 MW of natural gas capacity is expected to come online between 2015 and 2017

  • Strong growth from shale gas is expected to continue

Learn more about what's driving the energy markets in 2017 with our full report.
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How Are Natural Gas Prices Trending?

This chart shows how month-ahead prices for natural gas are settling on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It is a good indicator of where the market is, relative to where it has been over the past four years.

What Do Forward Natural Gas Markets Look Like?

Henry Hub

Henry Hub represents a main distribution center for natural gas. Activity at the Henry Hub is considered a benchmark for natural gas prices in markets across the country, including the NYMEX and OTC Global Holdings. This chart shows how Henry Hub forward prices for natural gas have trended over the past calendar year.

1 Year Trend of Power Around-the-Clock Calendar Year Prices

Prices for power are constantly fluctuating, and it can be difficult to know exactly when they are going to spike or plummet. These charts show how future power prices have trended over the past calendar year for New England (ISO-NE), the mid-Atlantic region (PJM), New York City (NYISO Zone J), and Northern Illinois.

1 Year Trend of Natural Gas Calendar Year Prices

While the Henry Hub provides the benchmark, prices tend to vary based on regional factors. These charts show how forward prices are trending over the previous calendar year at the hubs for New England (Algonquin), New York (both Transco Z6 NonNY and Transco Z6 NY) and Chicago (Chicago City Gate).

Weather Forecast

Extreme swings in weather can significantly impact energy prices. These maps depict forecasts courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Blue shading indicates areas with a high probability of seeing below-average temperatures, and red shading shows areas that are likely to see above-average (white areas are most likely to see average temperatures for their climate). The darker the shade of either color, the higher the probability that the corresponding area will see abnormal weather.

For questions about this week's article, contact EnerNOC Energy Analyst Ricky Ghoshroy.

Learn more about what's driving the energy markets in 2017 with our full report.
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Authored By The EnerNOC Energy Intelligence Team

The Energy Intelligence team provides talent and knowledge to our customers by making the complexity of energy management simple.

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